Keith Cloak on LinkedIn: REALTORS of Lee and Collier County for you and your clients.  Lee and… (2024)

Home prices are 47% higher now than in early 2020, and the median sale price is five times the median household income. It’s important to note that those price gains come even as the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage jumped sharply in April, from 6.9% to 7.5%,

Home prices reached a record high in May 2024 with 7% interest rates. How much higher will they go if the interest rates fall back into the 6% range? OUCH!

In the first six months of 2024, home prices increased by 5% compared to 2023, while interest rates remained relatively stable. It seems that the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation are approaching an end. As interest rates begin to decrease, buyers will likely perceive opportunities, causing a spike in contract home prices in the second half of 2024. During this period, while the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see stance, savvy home buyers are quietly moving back into the market, realizing rates may come down by a half point or so over the next six months However, home prices are already moving higher.

The delinquency rate of first-lien mortgages currently stands at 3.09% and is showing signs of continuing to decline. This serves as a strong indicator of a thriving housing market, bolstered by the limited availability of existing homes for sale. It comes as no surprise that we are witnessing historically low delinquency rates in this environment. Looking back to 2010, the Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing (QE) policy allowed homebuyers to stretch their budgets due to historically low interest rates. However, the tides have turned in 2021, as the Fed aggressively implemented Quantitative Tightening (QT), resulting in interest rates soaring to levels not seen in 40 years. While both policies present challenges, it is highly likely that QT will lead to a future spike in the delinquency of first-lien mortgages.

So, your buyers are still on the sidelines with 6-7% interest rates, thinking that house prices will begin to drop? It's not possible, and here’s why! The total supply of single-family houses in the U.S. grows about half as fast as the total supply of gold in the world. Today, a record of just under 40% of homeowners are mortgage-free, and of those that do have a mortgage, 50% are below a 4% interest rate. Waiting on the sidelines for lower interest rates has proven to be a flawed strategy.